Population projections predict British Columbia’s population will continue to grow, but fall behind Alberta (Black Press File).

B.C. population on pace to fall behind Alberta

Provincial population could reach almost seven million in 2043, but Alberta is growing faster

British Columbia could be home to seven million people by 2043, but still fall behind Alberta in population size.

That is one of the projections found in a new report from Statistics Canada. It predicts the provincial population will continue to grow over the next 25 years according to all scenarios. But if so, the range of predictions varies, from 5.61 million under the low-growth scenario to 6.94 million under the high-growth scenario. Statistics Canada pegs the current population at 4.99 million in 2018.

The agency gamed out nine scenarios involving various demographics factors such as natural birth rate and immigration and almost all scenarios could see Alberta surpass British Columbia by 2043 to become the third most populous province in Canada.

RELATED: International migration drives population rise in B.C.

RELATED: Canada’s population clock shows demographic changes in real time

“In all scenarios, the rate of population growth in Alberta would be the highest among Canadian provinces over the next 25 years,” reads an accompanying analysis from Statistics Canada. “By 2043, Alberta’s population would number between [six] million and 7.3 million inhabitants depending on the scenario, compared with 4.3 million in 2018.”

All scenarios show Ontario would remain the most populous province, with Alberta and Ontario accounting for more than half of the overall national population between 2018 and 2043 in all scenarios.

By 2068, the Canadian population could reach anywhere between 44.4 million and 70.2 million by 2068. According to the medium-growth scenario, the Canadian population would grow from 37.1 million in 2018 to 55.2 million by 2068.

What accounts for the growth? Immigration, mainly. “While the populations of many developed countries are expected to decrease, Canada’s population is projected to grow over the next 50 years, largely because of strong immigration,” it reads.

But immigration won’t stop the Canadian society from aging. All projections show seniors will continue to outnumber children, a pattern dating back to 2016. By 2068, seniors could account for up to 30 per cent of the Canadian population, while the share of persons of working age (15 to 64 years) could decrease from 67 per cent in 2018 to a possible low of 58 per cent in 2068, a development with significant consequences for the Canadian economy and the sustainability of the welfare.

Broadly speaking, the population projections confirm Ontario’s demographic dominance, predict demographic growth in western Canada centred on Alberta, and an aging Atlantic Canada. They also suggest the declining salience of Canada’s linguistic fault lines.

Quebec, home to almost eight out of 10 residents who claim French as their first mother tongue, could see its population drop. It could decrease from 22.6 per cent in 2018 to between 20.1 per cent and 20.6 per cent by 2043. Recent years have also seen a proliferation of immigrants from countries, whose dominant language is neither French nor English.


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

wolfgang.depner@peninsulanewsreview.com

Just Posted

Kelowna’s Gospel Mission to serve Thanksgiving dinner for the less fortunate

The dinner will be served from 12 p.m. to 6.p.m. and will include your traditional foods

Water Quality Advisory in effect for those living in Kelowna’s Glenmore-Ellison area

All taps being serviced from Mill Creek need to be shutoff or identified as dangerous to the public

Whisky lovers get another crack at purchasing prized Okanagan product

The Okanagan’s Laird of Fintry only releases their exclusive malt whiskey once a year

Chefs in the Classroom Initiative Set to Grow Thanks to Generous Support

The initiative teaches young children how to grow, cook and eat local foods

Chart-Topping Singer-Songwriter Leeroy Stagger to play Kelowna in November

Stagger will be playing songs off his new album “Strange Path”

B.C.’s rural paramedic program expands, with home support

Advanced care ambulance staff added for six communities

Heiltsuk Nation open first Big House in 120 years in northern B.C.

Opening means the community now has an appropriate space for spiritual and ceremonial events

Singh says NDP would form coalition with the Liberals to stop Tories

Singh was in a Liberal-held riding Sunday afternoon in Surrey where he was pressed about his post-election intentions

‘My heart goes out to the mother’: B.C. dad reacts to stabbing death of Ontario boy

Carson Crimeni, who was also 14, was bullied relentlessly, his dad says

BC Ferries filling up fast with post-Thanksgiving weekend travellers

Monday anticipated to be busiest day of the weekend

Morning Start: How old is the Canadian Thanksgiving tradition?

Your morning start for Monday, October 14th, 2019

‘Wham-bam out the door’: Surrey man’s front yard left ruined by scamming landscaper

Resident warns neighbours to be careful of door-to-door salesmen

Canadian Snowbirds plane crashes before air show in Atlanta

Pilot lands safely after ejecting from jet

Share crash data, private insurers tell David Eby, ICBC

B.C. monopoly makes drivers retrieve their own records

Most Read